← Upstream archive
Tettares

Upstream by Tettares

Issue 2 · June 30, 2026 · AI Compute

The circular AI trade, mapped

A worked example of the well-known circular AI trade, traced through NVIDIA: its customers, its suppliers, and the companies it funds to buy its own chips.

The AI buildout looks like the purest demand story in markets: the hyperscalers can’t buy chips fast enough. But look upstream, at the cap tables instead of the income statements, and the demand starts to look more circular. The companies selling the compute are also funding the companies that buy it. Nowhere is that clearer than in humanoid robotics.

The Figure cap table. Figure AI closed a more-than-$1B Series C at a $39B post-money valuation in September 2025, with NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon all participating Reported · 0.8. Those are the three most consequential names in AI compute. And what do Figure’s robots run on? NVIDIA: Figure 02 performs all inference on dual onboard NVIDIA RTX GPUs and trains its models on NVIDIA H100s Reported · 0.9. So NVIDIA holds equity in Figure, and Figure’s hardware budget flows back to NVIDIA. The investor is the supplier.

Checking access…